The December Gap.A free cash flow forecast for independent restaurants, pubs and bars

How does the December Gap work?

The days from today to 1 January 2027 are bankable days, at your average week. The days from 1 January to 1 April 2027 are quiet weeks. The tool works out the cash you need on 1 January to cover the quiet-week shortfall, compares it with the cash you are on course for, and gives you the gap and what each remaining day has to add.

Why does it take next quarter’s VAT off my cash?

The VAT you have collected and will pay HMRC is in your bank balance but is not yours to spend, so the tool leaves it out. Bills and takings are entered ex VAT, so the VAT you collect from now on stays out too.

What is a bankable day?

Any day between today and 1 January 2027. It is a day when you can still add cash before the quiet weeks start, so the tool shows what each one has to add to close your gap.

Can I get a time to pay arrangement from HMRC?

GOV.UK says: if you cannot pay your tax bill in full, you may be able to set up a payment plan to pay it in instalments. HMRC will check if a payment plan is affordable for you. GOV.UK also has a section on what happens if you do not contact HMRC or refuse to pay (read 2 November 2026).

Source: GOV.UK: If you cannot pay your tax bill on time

Can I set up a VAT payment plan with HMRC?

GOV.UK’s page on paying your VAT bill says: “Check what to do if you cannot pay your tax bill on time.” That guide says you may be able to set up a payment plan to pay in instalments, and that HMRC will check if a payment plan is affordable for you. GOV.UK says “may”: HMRC decides (read 2 November 2026).

Source: GOV.UK: Pay your VAT bill · GOV.UK: If you cannot pay your tax bill on time

What if I can’t pay my VAT bill?

GOV.UK says you must pay your VAT bill by the deadline shown on your VAT Return, and that you may have to pay a surcharge or penalty if you do not pay on time. Its page for a bill you cannot pay on time is linked below. The December Gap takes next quarter’s VAT off your cash, so you see how much of your balance is really yours (read 2 November 2026).

Source: GOV.UK: Pay your VAT bill · GOV.UK: If you cannot pay your tax bill on time

When is my VAT bill due?

GOV.UK says the deadline for submitting your VAT Return online is usually one calendar month and 7 days after the end of an accounting period, and that this is also the deadline for paying HMRC. The payment must reach HMRC on or before the deadline, even if it is on a weekend or bank holiday. If you pay by Direct Debit, GOV.UK says payments are collected automatically 3 working days after the payment deadline on your VAT return. If you file your VAT return late, GOV.UK says the payment is taken 3 days after you file. You must set up the Direct Debit at least 3 working days before you submit your VAT return (read 2 November 2026).

Source: GOV.UK: Sending a VAT Return · GOV.UK: Pay your VAT bill · GOV.UK: Pay your VAT bill: Pay by Direct Debit

What are my VAT quarter dates?

GOV.UK says you usually need to send a VAT Return to HMRC every 3 months, and calls this your accounting period. GOV.UK says your payment deadline is the one shown on your VAT Return, and to use your VAT online account to find out when your VAT Returns are due (read 2 November 2026).

Source: GOV.UK: Sending a VAT Return · GOV.UK: Pay your VAT bill

Is my information stored or sent anywhere?

No. The sums run in your browser. Copy my answer uses your clipboard, Email it to myself opens your own email app, and Print or save as PDF uses your browser’s print.

Is this financial advice?

No. It is arithmetic on the numbers you type. Use your own figures, and talk to your accountant or your bank before you act on the result.